Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: A Benchmark Study of Gradient Boosting Against Deep Sequence Models

Authors

  • Berit Rappenglueck Department of Statistics, Spessart Institute of Applied Artificial Intelligence, Aschaffenburg, Germany Author
  • Regula Roethlisberg Department of Energy Systems, Surselva Institute of Applied Artificial Intelligence, Ilanz, Switzerland Author
  • Ziga Ravnikar Department of Data Science, Notranjska Institute of Applied Artificial Intelligence, Postojna, Slovenia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22657217

Keywords:

Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting; Applied machine learning; Evidence synthesis; Production deployment; MLOps

Abstract

Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting is an area of active development in applied machine learning, with evidence that has
accumulated unevenly across its component questions. We review the current evidence base for short-term electricity load
forecasting, spanning methodological, implementation, governance, and cost dimensions, focusing on where practice has
converged and where it continues to vary, and set out the practical considerations relevant to a team considering its adoption. We
conclude that selective, context-specific use is best supported by the evidence currently available, rather than uniform adoption or
avoidance.

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Castellani R, Ristic C, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a empirical analysis". Knowl Based Syst 32(2014): 432-443. DOI: 10.2196/48633

Dumitrescu A, Andric D, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a ablation study". IEEE Trans Neural Netw Learn Syst 34(2017): 443-455. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305949

Eriksdottir B, Brankovic E, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a reproducibility study". Proc KDD 36(2020): 454-467. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000514

Farkas I, Ionescu F, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a large-scale evaluation". Proc AAAI 38(2023): 465-479. DOI: 10.17219/acem/208596

Grabowski P, Petrescu G, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a case study". IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng 40(2014): 476-482. DOI: 10.7759/cureus.104086

Hendriksen W, Wojcik H, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a survey". J Artif Intell Res 42(2017): 487-494. DOI: 10.1038/s41746-023-00852-5

Ionescu F, Foscarini I, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a comparative analysis". ACM Comput Surv 44(2020): 498-506. DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2022.09.004

Jankowiak G, Grabowski J, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a field deployment report". Neural Comput Appl 46(2023): 509-518. DOI: 10.1177/08404704241291226

Kowalczyk N, Novotna K, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a benchmark study". Expert Syst Appl 8(2014): 520-530. DOI: 10.1093/medlaw/fwad013

Lindqvist U, Urbanek L, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a systematic evaluation". Inf Sci 10(2017): 531-542. DOI: 10.2196/89834

Marchetti D, Doncheva M, et al. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: a empirical analysis". Pattern Recognit 12(2020): 542-554. DOI: 10.1007/s10916-024-02104-9

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Published

2022-04-12