Species Distribution Models Under Novel Climates: Systematic Review of Extrapolation Behaviour

Abstract

There is real interest in species distribution models under novel climates right now, and real uncertainty about exactly where it
delivers the most value. We pull together the current evidence for species distribution models under novel climates, covering the
methodological, practical, regulatory and cost angles, with an eye on where practice has genuinely settled and where researchers
and reviewers are still largely working it out for themselves. Selective, context-specific adoption looks better supported by the
evidence gathered here than either broad rollout or blanket avoidance.