Crop Model Ensembles for Regional Yield Forecasting: Weighting Schemes and Their Failure in Extreme Years

Abstract

Crop Model Ensembles for Regional Yield Forecasting has moved quickly from a research idea to something a working farm can
actually use, but the evidence behind it has not always kept pace. We pull together the current evidence for crop model ensembles
for regional yield forecasting, covering the methodological, practical, governance and cost angles, with an eye on where practice
has genuinely settled and where farms and advisors are still largely working it out for themselves. Selective, context-specific
adoption looks better supported by the evidence gathered here than either broad rollout or blanket avoidance.