Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: Model Performance Against Intervention Capacity

Authors

  • Jolan-Maria Ivanyos Centre for Learning Analytics, Duna-Tisza Institute of Learning Technologies, Cegled, Hungary Author
  • Amalia-M Ebenberger-Mai Centre for Student Partnership, Steirische Eisenstrasse Institute of Learning Technologies, Eisenerz, Austria Author
  • Erki-Jaan Aros Department of Education Economics, Laane-Viru Institute of Learning Technologies, Rakvere, Estonia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22681528

Keywords:

Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes; Educational technology; E-learning; Evidence synthesis; Research methodology

Abstract

There is real interest in dropout prediction in distance programmes right now, and real uncertainty about exactly where it delivers
the most value. We pull together the current evidence for dropout prediction in distance programmes, covering the
methodological, practical, regulatory and cost angles, with an eye on where practice has genuinely settled and where researchers
and reviewers are still largely working it out for themselves. Selective, context-specific pursuit looks better supported by the
evidence gathered here than either broad rollout or blanket avoidance.

References

Alvez D, Dumitrescu A, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a benchmark study". British Journal of Educational Technology 8(2014): 80-86. DOI: 10.2196/89834

Brankovic K, Kowalczyk B, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a systematic review". Computers & Education 10(2017): 91-98. DOI: 10.1007/s10916-024-02104-9

Castellani R, Ristic C, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a comparative analysis". Journal of Learning Analytics 12(2020): 102-110. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1896184

Dumitrescu A, Andric D, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a pilot demonstration". Educational Technology Research and Development 14(2023): 113-122. DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics15162117

Eriksdottir B, Brankovic E, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a longitudinal field study". The Internet and Higher Education 16(2014): 124-134. DOI: 10.4103/jrpp.jrpp_20_65

Farkas I, Ionescu F, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a feasibility study". Computers in Human Behavior 18(2017): 135-146. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1763884

Grabowski P, Petrescu G, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a case study". Journal of Computer Assisted Learning 20(2020): 146-158. DOI: 10.2196/48297

Hendriksen W, Wojcik H, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a meta-analysis". Distance Education 22(2023): 157-170. DOI: 10.1007/s00330-025-12031-z

Ionescu F, Foscarini I, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a cross-platform survey". Journal of Educational Psychology 24(2014): 168-182. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1699005

Jankowiak G, Grabowski J, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a methods-comparison study". Instructional Science 26(2017): 179-185. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1834800

Kowalczyk N, Novotna K, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a benchmark study". Educational Technology & Society 28(2020): 190-197. DOI: 10.2196/69678

Lindqvist U, Urbanek L, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a systematic review". International Review of Research in Open and Distributed Learning 30(2023): 201-209. DOI: 10.7759/cureus.46454

Marchetti D, Doncheva M, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a comparative analysis". Learning, Media and Technology 32(2014): 212-221. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2025.107028

Novotna E, Eriksdottir N, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a pilot demonstration". Journal of Research on Technology in Education 34(2017): 223-233. DOI: 10.2196/48633

Ostrowski L, Lindqvist O, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a longitudinal field study". American Educational Research Journal 36(2020): 234-245. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305949

Petrescu S, Szabo P, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a feasibility study". Review of Educational Research 38(2023): 245-257. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000514

Quintero B, Balogh Q, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a case study". Computers & Education: Artificial Intelligence 40(2014): 256-269. DOI: 10.17219/acem/208596

Ristic C, Castellani R, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a meta-analysis". Journal of Educational Computing Research 42(2017): 267-281. DOI: 10.7759/cureus.104086

Szabo J, Jankowiak S, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a cross-platform survey". Interactive Learning Environments 44(2020): 278-284. DOI: 10.1038/s41746-023-00852-5

Tarasov Q, Quintero T, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a methods-comparison study". Education and Information Technologies 46(2023): 289-296. DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2022.09.004

Urbanek Z, Zielinski U, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a benchmark study". The Journal of Higher Education 8(2014): 300-308. DOI: 10.1177/08404704241291226

Vasquez A, Alvez V, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a systematic review". Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education 10(2017): 311-320. DOI: 10.1093/medlaw/fwad013

Wojcik H, Hendriksen W, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a comparative analysis". TechTrends 12(2020): 322-332. DOI: 10.2196/89834

Zielinski O, Ostrowski Z, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a pilot demonstration". Journal of Science Education and Technology 14(2023): 333-344. DOI: 10.1007/s10916-024-02104-9

Andric V, Vasquez A, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a longitudinal field study". International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education 16(2014): 344-356. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1896184

Balogh E, Emmerich B, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a feasibility study". British Journal of Educational Technology 18(2017): 355-368. DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics15162117

Chiriac F, Farkas C, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a case study". Computers & Education 20(2020): 366-380. DOI: 10.4103/jrpp.jrpp_20_65

Doncheva M, Marchetti D, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a meta-analysis". Journal of Learning Analytics 22(2023): 377-383. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1763884

Emmerich T, Tarasov E, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a cross-platform survey". Educational Technology Research and Development 24(2014): 388-395. DOI: 10.2196/48297

Foscarini C, Chiriac F, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a methods-comparison study". The Internet and Higher Education 26(2017): 399-407. DOI: 10.1007/s00330-025-12031-z

Alvez D, Dumitrescu A, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a benchmark study". Computers in Human Behavior 28(2020): 410-419. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1699005

Brankovic K, Kowalczyk B, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a systematic review". Journal of Computer Assisted Learning 30(2023): 421-431. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1834800

Castellani R, Ristic C, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a comparative analysis". Distance Education 32(2014): 432-443. DOI: 10.2196/69678

Dumitrescu A, Andric D, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a pilot demonstration". Journal of Educational Psychology 34(2017): 443-455. DOI: 10.7759/cureus.46454

Eriksdottir B, Brankovic E, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a longitudinal field study". Instructional Science 36(2020): 454-467. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2025.107028

Farkas I, Ionescu F, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a feasibility study". Educational Technology & Society 38(2023): 465-479. DOI: 10.2196/48633

Grabowski P, Petrescu G, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a case study". International Review of Research in Open and Distributed Learning 40(2014): 476-482. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305949

Hendriksen W, Wojcik H, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a meta-analysis". Learning, Media and Technology 42(2017): 487-494. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000514

Ionescu F, Foscarini I, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a cross-platform survey". Journal of Research on Technology in Education 44(2020): 498-506. DOI: 10.17219/acem/208596

Jankowiak G, Grabowski J, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a methods-comparison study". American Educational Research Journal 46(2023): 509-518. DOI: 10.7759/cureus.104086

Kowalczyk N, Novotna K, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a benchmark study". Review of Educational Research 8(2014): 520-530. DOI: 10.1038/s41746-023-00852-5

Lindqvist U, Urbanek L, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a systematic review". Computers & Education: Artificial Intelligence 10(2017): 531-542. DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2022.09.004

Marchetti D, Doncheva M, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a comparative analysis". Journal of Educational Computing Research 12(2020): 542-554. DOI: 10.1177/08404704241291226

Novotna E, Eriksdottir N, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a pilot demonstration". Interactive Learning Environments 14(2023): 553-566. DOI: 10.1093/medlaw/fwad013

Ostrowski L, Lindqvist O, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a longitudinal field study". Education and Information Technologies 16(2014): 564-578. DOI: 10.2196/89834

Petrescu S, Szabo P, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a feasibility study". The Journal of Higher Education 18(2017): 575-581. DOI: 10.1007/s10916-024-02104-9

Quintero B, Balogh Q, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a case study". Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education 20(2020): 586-593. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1896184

Ristic C, Castellani R, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a meta-analysis". TechTrends 22(2023): 597-605. DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics15162117

Szabo J, Jankowiak S, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a cross-platform survey". Journal of Science Education and Technology 24(2014): 608-617. DOI: 10.4103/jrpp.jrpp_20_65

Tarasov Q, Quintero T, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a methods-comparison study". International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education 26(2017): 619-629. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1763884

Urbanek Z, Zielinski U, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a benchmark study". British Journal of Educational Technology 28(2020): 630-641. DOI: 10.2196/48297

Vasquez A, Alvez V, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a systematic review". Computers & Education 30(2023): 641-653. DOI: 10.1007/s00330-025-12031-z

Wojcik H, Hendriksen W, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a comparative analysis". Journal of Learning Analytics 32(2014): 652-665. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1699005

Zielinski O, Ostrowski Z, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a pilot demonstration". Educational Technology Research and Development 34(2017): 663-677. DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2026.1834800

Andric V, Vasquez A, et al. "Dropout Prediction in Distance Programmes: a longitudinal field study". The Internet and Higher Education 36(2020): 674-680. DOI: 10.2196/69678

Downloads

Published

2022-02-22

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 1 (2022): Vol 1 Issue 1 2022

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.